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AIG Global Trade Series 2024

Back to the Future:

A New Era of Managed Trade? 

Globalisation’s next chapter is being written, driven by concerns about supply chain risks. The global trade in goods is increasingly seen through a security prism in capitals around the world and governments are developing new policies to reduce unwanted dependencies, seek new sources of leverage and guarantee supplies. Trade links are being reordered as policymakers scramble to secure access to strategic materials and positions in global value chains. Meanwhile, geopolitical turbulence and climate ambitions are giving rise to industrial policies, sanctions and a growing use of subsidies.

From investment screening to quotas to export controls, policymakers are proposing an increasing number of tools and policies to steer trade and investment flows. But despite worries about protectionism and fragmentation, trade continues as the private sector manages risk by embracing diversification. Elections in the US, EU, Mexico, UK, Indonesia, India and elsewhere may also lead to a reordering of the global politics of trade. Has the global trade system entered an era of managed trade? What will it mean for regional approaches to trade, and what does it mean for multilateralism and the WTO? Ultimately, the main question could be: who is in the driving seat in this brave new world for trade?

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Introduction from Thomas Lillelund

The AIG Global Trade Series 2024 is a series of podcasts analysing the complex interplay of factors shaping the global trade system. The series is brought to you by AIG in partnership with some of the world’s leading centers of expertise on global trade.

To hear leading international experts discussing a wide range of the most important trade related issues, listen to the episodes on this site or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Aspen Institute Germany promotes values-based leadership, constructive dialog among conflicting parties, and Euro-Atlantic cooperation to support and enhance a strong open society. To do so, Aspen Germany convenes decision-makers and experts from the fields of politics, business, academia, media, culture, and civil society in three programs:

  • Policy Programs offer a non-partisan, confidential platform for dialog and analysis to address regional and global challenges and to develop mutually acceptable solutions. This branch is comprised of the Berlin Transatlantic Forum, the Digital Program, as well as the Europe Program.
  • Leadership Programs reflect on values and ideas using the Socratic method to deepen knowledge, broaden perspectives, and enhance participants' ability to solve the problems they face.
  • Public Programs provide a forum for open and constructive dialog between decision-makers and a broader audience on a wide range of current issues.

The Aspen Institute Germany was founded in Berlin in 1974 and has since then actively promoted the idea of transatlantic community and of a free and open society. It serves as a non-partisan, non-profit convening platform and is part of the global Aspen network,  with partners in the United States, the Czech Republic, France, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Romania, Spain and Ukraine. Together, the Institutes are committed to addressing the chanllenges of the 21st century.

CEBRI's 24-year history is intimately linked to the development of Brazilian diplomacy and foreign policy. A group of ambassadors, intellectuals and businessmen who sought to strengthen Brazil's international engagement, disseminate knowledge and influence public policymaking toward national development created CEBRI--the country's only think tank dedicated to advancing the global agenda.

Envisioned by Ambassador Luiz Felipe Lampreia, CEBRI's founding members include nationally and internationally renowned figures such as Celso Lafer, Walther Moreira Salles, Eliezer Batista da Silva, Sebastião do Rego Barros Netto, Luciano Martins de Almeida, Carlos Mariani Bittencourt, Daniel Klabin, Gelson Fonseca Jr, João Clemente Baena Soares, Luiz Olavo Baptista, Maria do Carmo Nabuco de Almeida Braga, Marcus Vinicius Pratini de Moraes, and Roberto Teixeira da Costa.

CEBRI stands out for its intellectual patrimony and the size of its Board of Trustees. Its board members include those who have built and continue to build Brazil's history and are essential players in several areas of expertise in the public and private sectors, academia, and civil society. Their histories unite at CEBRI in the commitment to promoting Brazil's international engagement.

Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, is a world-leading policy institute based in London.

Its mission is to help governments and societies build a sustainably secure, prosperous and just world.

It engages governments, the private sector, civil society and its members in open debate and private discussions about the most significant developments in international affairs. Each year, the institute runs more than 300 private and public events – conferences, workshops and roundtables – in London and internationally with partners. Its convening power attracts world leaders and the best analysts in their respective fields from across the globe.

Its research work focuses on independent and rigorous analysis of critical global, regional and country-specific challenges and opportunities

Clingendael - the Netherlands Institute of International Relations - is the leading Dutch think tank and academy for international relations. With 40+ years of top knowledge in research, training and public debate it inspires and equips international professionals, societies, businesses and governments to contribute to a secure, sustainable and just world.

The mission of the Elcano Royal Institute is to contribute to innovative, robust, inclusive and informed responses to global challenges and governance and to analyse the role of Spain in the world, with a particular emphasis on its position in Europe. The Institute analyses the international outlook and assesses how major global transformations affect Spanish society. Their objective is to provide ideas that promote and strengthen sustainability, peace and security, prosperity, the reduction of inequalities, democracy, freedom and human rights, and equality between women and men.

The Institute seeks to bring rigour, independence and pluralism and a wide range of perspectives to bear on their complex and rapidly changing world. They aim to contribute innovative ideas to public debate for use by institutions, public administrations, the private sector, academia, research institutes and civil society as a whole. They do this by working in interdisciplinary teams and maintaining permanent exchanges and dialogues with all sectors of society, research institutes and national and international organisations and institutions.

The Institute is committed to ensuring that the results of its research are permanently available to everyone through open access documents produced in accessible formats and published on their website.

Elcano Royal Institute are the leading Spanish think tank for international and strategic affairs and one of the leading think tanks in Europe and the world. 

The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) is an international organisation headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia, specialising in in-depth research on issues concerning the people and governments of ASEAN and East Asia. Established in 2008, ERIA collaborates with global academics and officials to deliver capacity-building and analysis across various subjects, supporting the development of actionable policy recommendations for sustainable futures.

ERIA closely partners with the ASEAN Secretariat and research institutes from East Asia and beyond, providing innovative and analytical research along with policy recommendations. The research projects are organised under three main pillars:

  • Deepening Economic Integration
  • Narrowing Development Gaps
  • Achieving Sustainable Development

ERIA’s studies cover a wide range of policy areas, such as trade and investment, SMEs, infrastructure, connectivity, digital economy, environment, healthcare, agriculture, and energy issues. Our experts represent diverse perspectives and come from many countries including Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal, the Philippines, South Korea, and Viet Nam.

The Institute of International Economic Law (IIEL) is the focal point for the study of international economic law at Georgetown Law, serving as a fulcrum point for legal and policy discussions in international trade and development, international financial regulation, international monetary affairs, transnational business and international tax.

The Institute of International Economic Law was founded in 1999 by the late University Professor John H. Jackson, one of the founders of today’s GATT/WTO system. It is now directed by Agnes Williams Sesquicentennial Professor of Financial Technology Chris Brummer, who leads an array of accomplished faculty members to facilitate thoughtful and scholarly research and teaching, convene stakeholder meetings and conferences bringing together public and private sector leaders, and offer Executive Education on a broad range of subjects that concern the law of international economic activity. The Institute actively approaches these fields as interrelated and at times overlapping policy spheres that impact how law is devised, practiced and enforced. The Institute hosts two interdisciplinary research hubs, the Sovereign Debt Forum (SDF) and the Center on Inclusive Trade and Development (CITD).

Housed at Georgetown Law, with the largest array of courses in international economic law in the country, IIEL offers students, faculty, alumni and friends the opportunity to routinely interact with top scholars, policymakers, law firms, and think tanks. As part of a top research university, IIEL strives to make available unparalleled opportunities for learning and study based on its location in the heart of Washington DC, and longstanding connections with a variety of global institutions and organizations.

The Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) in an independent, non-partisan, non-profit think tank providing leading research and viable policy options to government officials, business executives and the public at large wishing to better understand international issues. Founded in Milan, Italy, in 1934 thanks to the support of a group of businessmen led by Alberto Pirelli, founder of Pirelli S.p.A., ISPI has always adopted a pragmatic approach in analyzing geographical areas and topics of particular interest to Italy and Europe.

ISPI is the only Italian Institute - and among the few in Europe - combining policy-oriented research with an equally significant commitment to education and training, to conferences and advice on international trends for businesses, Institutions and the wider audience. Its work features an inter-disciplinary approach and partnerships with leading think tanks and universities from all over the world.

The Jacques Delors Institute (JDI) is a European think tank founded in 1996 by Jacques Delors, former President of the European Commision. Its mission is to conduct independent research and to develop policy proposals both for Europe's decision-makers and for a broader audience, in view of contributing to debates on the European integration. It promotes the exchange of ideas through the organisation of experts' seminars and public conferences convening European leaders. Areas of expertise rang from trade policy, energy policy, EU budget, labour and social policies, European institutions and governance, European identity. The Institute is based in Paris and its team works closely with the Jacques Delors Centre (Hertie School of Governance) in Berlin founded in 2014, and the Europe - Jacques Delors created in Brussels in 2020

The Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) is a Japanese policy think tank established in 2001. Its mission is to conduct theoretical and empirical research, maximize synergies with those engaged in policymaking, and to make policy proposals based on evidence derived from such research activities. The institute is highly regarded both in Japan and abroad for its activity.

RIETI invites leading experts from Japan, the United States, Europe, and other Asian countries to give lectures about various global issues including economic security and regional affairs such as the U.S.-China conflict, the situation in the Middle East, the propects of the Chinese economy, climate change, environmental and energy issues, the post-corona global trade system, supply chain risks, SDGs, etc. Many policy proposals are derived from information collected and discussed in these lectures.

The St. Gallen Endowment is the institutional home of the Global Trade Alert, the Digital Policy Alert and the Essential Goods Initiative, the leading independent monitors of government policies affecting traditional and digital cross-border commerce. Because we want globalisation to be better managed for the benefit of all, we reconceive how government policy is recorded, democratise access to that information so that more effective policies can be identified and advance policy initiatives so that international commerce is a stronger engine of human progress in the decades to come. The Endowment is a foundation registered under Swiss Law with its offices in St Gallen, Switzerland. The Endowment's statutes require it to protect and preserve its independence--but that does not preclude engagement with third parties that share our goals.   

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